Présidentielle ivoirienne : l’organisation du Prince William se prononce : « le vote de 94% de Ouattara n’apportera ni légitimité ni stabilité »

La Royal African Society, organisation internationale dirigée par le Prince William, s’est prononcée sur la réélection de Ouattara.

En Côte d’Ivoire, le chemin emprunté par le président Ouattara semble également plus susceptible d’endommager son héritage que de le préserver. En ne trouvant pas, en préparant ou en autorisant un successeur plus jeune et en décidant de se présenter à nouveau, il risque de relancer les conflits du passé, annulant ses réalisations de rétablissement de la paix et de la croissance dans le pays après dix ans de guerre civile. Comme l’a constaté le président du Burkina Faso Compaoré en 2014, rester n’apporte pas de stabilité mais de bouleversement. Ouattara devrait apprendre de l’erreur de son ami, pas la répéter. Nyerere et Mandela ont tous deux montré à quel point la stabilité est mieux obtenue en partant qu’en restant.

L’opposition a également pris le chemin du conflit, essayant de délégitimer l’élection en boycottant plutôt qu’en la contestant. Ailleurs en Afrique, les boycotts n’ont mené nulle part, suggérant que Bedié et Affi N’Guesson craignent de perdre de toute façon et que Ouattara obtienne un mandat plus légitime. Le problème avec ce chemin est que tout le monde y perd: un résultat compromis n’apportera que l’instabilité et l’appauvrissement, pas le progrès. Le vote de 94% de Ouattara sur un taux de participation de 53% n’apportera ni légitimité ni stabilité. Comme l’a dit un jeune entrepreneur ivoirien, «nous sommes liés par la peur» .

Les élections en Guinée ont déjà montré les risques. L’ex-chef de l’opposition et champion de la démocratie, Alpha Condé, a été contraint par un amendement pour lui permettre de briguer un troisième mandat, malgré tous les efforts pour le dissuader. Ici aussi, le candidat de l’opposition, Cellou Dalein Diallo, accuse le parti au pouvoir de manipuler les résultats et revendique la victoire . Les partisans de l’opposition sont descendus dans la rue pour défendre leur cause, mais Condé a montré la voie à ses collègues présidents en exercice en soumettant effectivement Diallo à l’assignation à résidence et en réprimant les manifestations.

Tous ces titulaires doivent se rappeler que les élections égyptiennes de novembre 2010 ont donné aux partisans du président Moubarak 95% des sièges au Parlement. Pourtant, quatre mois plus tard, il a été contraint de quitter le pouvoir par la protestation populaire car le peuple ne tolérerait plus d’être ignoré. Aucune de ces trois élections n’offre un mandat convaincant ou légitime et, comme en Égypte, si les gens se sentent ignorés et incapables de changer leurs dirigeants aux urnes, ils trouveront d’autres moyens de le faire. L’instabilité fait signe, en particulier à Zanzibar, les investisseurs resteront à l’écart et, en fin de compte, ce sont les gens des trois pays qui souffriront jusqu’à ce qu’ils soient véritablement libres de choisir.

Il existe une alternative. Au Kenya et au Malawi , des systèmes judiciaires indépendants ont approuvé les contestations des résultats frauduleux des élections et, dans ce dernier cas, une élection plus transparente a clairement démontré que l’opposition avait gagné. En conséquence, le Malawi a un gouvernement stable et populaire avec un mandat légitime et est capable de résoudre les problèmes de la nation, et non de consacrer son temps et ses ressources à réprimer l’opposition.

Le temps passe par vagues. Il y a maintenant une réelle crainte que les titulaires des prochaines élections africaines se sentent encouragés à conserver le pouvoir comme ils le peuvent, et que les perdants rejettent donc les résultats quels qu’ils soient. Ceux qui ont encore des élections à venir cette année pourraient déterminer dans quelle direction la marée va en Afrique: le Burkina Faso se rendra aux urnes le 22 novembre, le Ghana le 7 décembre, le Niger et la République centrafricaine le 27 décembre. L’année prochaine, des élections présidentielles sont prévues en Ouganda et au Bénin en février, et en Gambie, au Tchad et en Zambie plus tard dans l’année.

Bien qu’en Afrique les limites de mandat semblent plus souvent honorées dans la violation que dans le respect, au Niger du moins, le président Issoufou respecte la fin de son deuxième mandat et se retire, donnant une chance de renouvellement si ses successeurs relèvent le défi. . Mais il est décevant que depuis les élections en RDC en 2018, l’UA et les organisations régionales se soient avérées incapables de faire appliquer les normes pour les élections – même la CEDEAO qui avait jusqu’à présent été le plus fervent défenseur de la démocratie dans la région.

Comme je l’ai déjà dit, en Afrique, la voix du peuple est de plus en plus forte . Si les dirigeants ne l’écoutent pas dans les processus électoraux et ne donnent pas à leur peuple le libre choix, alors un «printemps africain» pourrait être plus proche qu’on ne le pense .

source : Royal African Society

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